![]() As a result, at least 6.5 million people, including households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), still need humanitarian assistance to prevent hunger and mitigate the further erosion of their livelihoods.įurthermore, the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) remains credible through at least June in agropastoral areas of Burhakaba district of Bay Region and among the displaced populations in Baidoa and Mogadishu. However, the protracted drought has nonetheless claimed the lives and livelihoods of far too many people, and an anticipated sixth consecutive below-average rainfall season from April to June 2023 is expected to continue to suppress household food and income. High levels of assistance, including not only food assistance but also health, nutrition, and WASH interventions, has undoubtedly saved lives and prevented the complete collapse of local livelihoods amid the ongoing, unprecedented, three-year drought. ![]() Knowledge of historical and forecasted groundwater use is anticipated to improve decision-making and resource allocation for a range of early warning early action applications.The delivery of humanitarian assistance to millions of Somalis, coupled with higher rainfall totals in the 2022 deyr season compared to the past two seasons, will most likely avert Famine (IPC Phase 5) in Somalia through June. ![]() These maps represent the first operational spatially-explicit sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) estimates of groundwater use and demand in the literature. The groundwater maps are accessible to stakeholders including the Kenya National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) and the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). Forecasts were externally validated with an accuracy of at least 56%, 70%, or 72% for each groundwater use definition. Cross-validated skill for contemporary estimates of daily pump runtime and daily volume extraction to meet domestic and intermediate water needs was 68%, 69%, and 75%, respectively. Gridded interpolation of localized groundwater use and demand was provided from 2017 to 2020 and forecasted for the 2021 dry season, June–September 2021. Three operational definitions of high demand on groundwater infrastructure were considered: 1) mechanical runtime of pumps greater than a quarter of a day (6+ hr) and daily per capita volume extractions indicative of 2) domestic water needs (35+ L), and 3) intermediate needs including livestock (75+ L). An ensemble of 19 parameterized algorithms was informed by features including satellite-derived precipitation, surface water availability, vegetation indices, hydrologic land surface modeling, and site characteristics to dichotomize high groundwater pump utilization. ![]() The sensors contributed 756 site-month observations from June 2017 to September 2021 for model building and validation at a density of approximately one sensor per 3700 km 2. Estimates of groundwater use were extended from a sentinel network of 69 in-situ sensored mechanical boreholes to the region with satellite data and a machine learning model. In this work, areas of high groundwater use and demand in drought-prone Kenya were identified and forecasted prior to the dry season. ![]() Groundwater is an important source of water for people, livestock, and agriculture during drought in the Horn of Africa. ![]()
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